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Chance to move in on China market

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SINGAPORE - For the past few weekends, a group of gorgeous-looking young Westerners have joined my taiji group at East Coast Park.

Their youthful exuberance in getting their movements right has got our adrenaline pumping and spurred us on to be more zealous in practising the ancient rhythmic exercise.

We are all very excited over their sudden appearance in our taiji group and the enthusiasm they put into learning taiji.

When we asked them the reason for their new-found enthusiasm for the exercise, they only shook their heads and laughed.

"This is all hush-hush. We are all sworn to secrecy," some of them told us. Our taiji instructor, Mr Daniel Tan, said he, too, has promised not to spill the beans.

The air of mystery only added to the excitement. Of course, these young people could have been attracted to taiji because of its growing popularity among Westerners. But some of us believe that they must be involved in some movie project which involves taiji.

If it does indeed turn out to be a movie project, I will not be in the least surprised.

In recent years, Asia has increasingly been used as the backdrop for some of Hollywood's biggest blockbuster movies.

The recent box-office success Transformers: Age Of Extinction was partly shot in China and Hong Kong, while the sci-fi thriller Lucy had scenes in Taipei.

Both films reflect the importance which Hollywood film-makers now place on trying to penetrate the Asian markets - and China in particular, where a quota system limits the number of foreign films which can be shown there and the profits which can be passed on to its makers, unless they gain the coveted "co-production" status.

China used to be an after-thought as a market for film-makers. But in recent years, with film budgets of hundreds of million dollars apiece, movie producers have to make as much money in China as in the United States in order to recoup their costs.

Thus, we find Transformers: Age Of Extinction casting Chinese star Li Bingbing and pop idol Han Geng to attract the mainland crowd.

That strategy has paid off handsomely, as the film became the top-grossing film in China, garnering more than US$300 million (S$379 million). This was far more than the US$227 million proceeds raked in by the film in North America, as of July.

The manner in which Hollywood is trying to capture Chinese box-office revenue, in turn, reminds me of the pivotal role which China now plays in international finance.

In 2007, investors got an early warning of the oncoming global credit crunch when the overheated Shanghai stock market suddenly plunged 9 per cent on Feb 27 and triggered a stock market crash around the world.

During the following two years, it was the massive US$585 billion stimulus package launched by China which revived demand for commodities in such a big way that it helped to push regional stock markets from Shanghai to Sydney sharply higher, as investors went in hot pursuit of commodity stocks.

Now, we appear to sit on the cusp of a new opportunity, as the doors to China's stock market open a little wider.

Because of strict capital controls imposed by China, the Shanghai market has been largely confined to mainland investors who are also barred from buying overseas-listed stocks directly.

That is about to change because Beijing has announced the Hong Kong-Shanghai connect - a scheme to allow international investors to buy directly into Shanghai-listed shares via Hong Kong.

At the same time, mainland investors will be allowed to trade Hong Kong shares. The connection is due to be rolled out some time next month.

When the announcement was made in April, I was puzzled that the news was largely ignored by investors.

That was unlike in 2007 - the year when the "through train" programme of allowing mainlanders to buy overseas stocks was first mooted.

Back then, the Hong Kong and Singapore markets shot up to record-high levels on the news as traders salivated at the potential tsunami of Chinese money flooding their markets.

The tide, however, turned in July this year. While Occupy Central - a pro-democracy movement - grabbed the headlines with its noisy demonstrations in Hong Kong, international investors belatedly realised the lucrative potential of the connection and started to nibble at the stocks which may benefit from the tie-up.

Significant gainers have included the tracker funds tracking the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets.

In the past two months, the FTSE China A50 fund - which tracks 50 of the largest Shanghai-listed firms - has gained 13.4 per cent, while the H-share exchange-traded fund - tracking the shares of Hong Kong-listed big mainland firms - has gone up 8.9 per cent.

Will the exuberance continue? A US fund manager once observed that investors in China counters were always fixated on short-term gains, and this led them to agonise over every twist and turn in the China market.

It might have been more worthwhile to focus on issues such as the sustainability of the growth in China companies and their corporate cash flows, rather than try to time the market swings, he said.

This "think long-term" strategy appears to be what some Hollywood film-makers are adopting in their efforts to penetrate the China market - as they enjoy devastating success with some of the movie blockbusters which they produce in Asia.

engyeow@sph.com.sg


This article was first published on September 14, 2014.
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