Singapore's export engine roared back to life last month after coughing and stalling for three straight months.
While the losing streak has been snapped, experts warn that, given the weak electronics sector, this may be a one-off rally.
Non-oil domestic exports rose 6 per cent last month over the same period a year ago, thanks to a surge in shipments of petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals and shipping parts.
That broke a three-month run of declining exports and trumped the consensus market estimate of a rise of just 2.5 per cent.
Exports had been tipped to rise last month as the pace of contraction had started to slow. After sliding 6.6 per cent in May, they had fallen by 4.6 per cent in June and a more gentle 3.3 per cent in July.
Last month's jump took analysts by surprise but they are not popping the champagne yet. Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho highlighted some worrying signs in the data from trade agency IE Singapore yesterday.
"It's a strong headline number but it masks a disturbing trend, including the persistent decline in electronics," he said.
Electronics exports contracted 6.9 per cent last month compared with the same period last year, moderating from a 7.9 per cent decline in July.
It is also unclear if last month's 12.1 per cent growth in the non- electronics sector - led by a 39.9 per cent hike in petrochemical shipments, a 26.9 per cent jump in pharmaceuticals and a 1,337.8 per cent boost in the structures of ships and boats - can continue.
Standard Chartered Bank economist Edward Lee noted that last month's data benefited slightly from an absence of business disruption, as there were two public holidays last year that shut plants.
"It's not clear if the export growth is sustainable as support came from the very volatile pharmaceutical component," he said.
Patchy external demand from top trading partners is also adding to the uncertainty, with the rates of growth in exports to China, Europe and the US all slowing.
This article was first published on Sep 18, 2014.
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